We are living in increasingly turbulent times. Our lives have been severely impacted by armed global conflict, where autonomous, decentralized, and inexpensive drones are fighting complex, centralized, expensive systems in highly asymmetrical warfare, and where we have a potentially existential threat to our oil and gas energy ecosystem. It seems the energy transition is not occupying our attention. Yet, all these events are tied together, albeit loosely, with a common thread of fast-moving exponential technologies driving massive disruption and rapid societal transformation [3].
Incumbents who stand to lose in the new “oil-games” will fight to retain market share but will find it increasingly hard as their core value propositions are upended. Even in this global and very complex, rapidly unfolding situation, it does seem that the fundamentals associated with the energy transition will prevail. Dramatically higher cost of fossil fuels over 3–5 years, and a desire to reduce dependency on other nations in unpredictable times, will further accelerate the transition to renewables on the grid and more EVs–for reasons that have more to do with national resiliency, self-reliance, and economics, than with climate change and the energy transition. And these are the best reasons!
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